Kentucky Derby Week

Well it is finally here, the Kentucky Derby is less than a week away and the picture couldn’t be any more clouded than right now. UNCLE MO last year’s two year old champion and the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby faltered in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct tiring in the lane to finish third as the very heavy favorite. It was found after the race that he was suffering from a gastrointestinal infection. He was treated for that and has worked well since moving to Churchill Downs where we know he likes the track based on his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
With so much going on the week of the Derby those of us that are handicapping the race shouldn’t fall into the traps that can sometimes knock you off stride. Remember it is just a 1 and 1/4 mile race that happens to be the first leg of the Triple Crown and also have a field of 20 horses. If it was just another race for three year olds would all these trends that they talk about when it comes to Derby time even come up. You can’t win if you didn’t run at two, the two year old champion can’t win until STREET SENSE won the Derby and so on and so on. The post positions in this race depending on which horse your backing can really have an impact so before making my Kentucky Derby selections I will need to see the post position draw. The weather and the track condition will also be a big factor as to who you will select come Derby Day. The weather in Kentucky has not been good over the last few days with plenty of rain, sloppy tracks and it will throw another dynamic into the mix if the track is wet on Derby Day. Certain horses move up in the slop, some can’t stand up over a sloppy track. Some sloppy tracks can favor speed and others can be a come from behind closers’ track. There is a lot to look at heading into May 7th, the works, the track condition, the post positions, and many others. It is still up in the air as to who is 100% going to run. The have been many horses over the last few weeks that have dropped out and will not contest the Derby for one reason or another and with five days left before race day a lot can still happen.

Go back and watch all the replays of the prep races, remember that track condition and horses that have run well over the Churchill Downs strip should be upgraded and the post position draw can impact the race in a big way. If your a horse that needs to be up close and gain position early post 1 can be dicey. The point here is don’t be overwhelmed by the Derby, handicap as you would any other race but remember there are a few issues that can affect this race that might not affect another 1 and 1/4 mile race. 20 horses can become a big problem causing much traffic especially into the first turn which can cost a horse the race, you dont have 20 horse races in North America except in the Derby. Take that into account when handicapping this race and how certain horses will be affected by it.

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The Cream Always Rises to the Top

It’s been said that money is the root of all evil., or maybe the original greek saying, For the love of money is a root of all sorts of evil,”. When it comes to the racetrack, whether you are betting, training, riding, or working at the concession stand, money is king. People want to make money which is understandable but if they have to step on a few people they will do it. A situation occured a few weeks ago that in my opinion didnt get enough headlines. The best rider on the New York circuit for a while now is Ramon Dominguez. Not only is he the best physically but mentally no one comes close.

He is always in the right spot, always seems to find a hole, he is strong in the stretch when it counts and has enough finesse to guide a headstrong runner wire to wire if need be. He is always talked about when it comes to class but a decision he made a few weeks ago really caught my eye. The Cigar Mile, which is the last Grade I Stakes race run on the NYRA circuit and it carried a purse of $250,000.

For many of the connections it can be a very important race to run in and win and with that the best jockey on the circuit had two calls. One was for Steve Asmussen and HAYNESFIELD, a horse exiting the Breeders’ Cup Classic and a horse he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup two starts earlier. His other mount was for HALF METAL JACKET for trainer Rudy Rodriguez and owned by Michael Dubb, a duo he also rides a lot for. He would have had his choice and he probably would have been on the favorite had he chosen HAYNESFIELD.

However because he had committed to both and rides a lot for both trainers and owners he decided to sit the race out as he didnt feel comfortable abandoning either one. How many riders would do that? How many athletes would do that, give up a chance at good money because he didn’t want to upset the connections. I don’t think you can count those on one hand. HAYNESFIELD finsihed a solid second losing by a just a head with jockey Javier Castellano. Not to take anything away from Castellano, he is a great rider in his own right, but he is not Ramon Dominguez. It just shows no matter how great you are as an athlete you don’t always have to be greedy. Dominguez gave up a shot at $15,000 in his pocket for a minute and a half worth of work so people who have been big supporters of him would not feel like he chose against them. Especially in a race that important. Finally we got a good story in racing, a story where someone made a decision that impacted him negatively but in the end he felt he did the right thing. I’m not sure how many others would have made that decision and I think he should be commended for it.

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Can we please just get on the same page!

Living in New York on Long Island, if I want to make a bet I have a few options. I can bet at Nassau Otb which is very close to my house or I can bet at the NYRA, again not very far from my house. I have accounts at both places and each one offers phone and internet betting. I won’t even get into the internet betting format at NYRA right now that is a for another day. However, what I will get into today is the fact that no matter what track you are betting at you can be sure that one of those two betting outlets are not accepting the bets that the track itself takes.

For example at Turf Paradise starting with this meeting that began back on October 1st, they introduced a pick five wager that had a 50 cent increment. Well if you are at Turf Paradise you can bet it for 50 cents, if you are at Nassau Otb you can bet it for 50 cents but if you wanted to put the bet through the NYRA you can’t. I found that out a few weeks ago when I wanted to play the pick five at Turf Paradise because it had a small carryover and realized that no only could you not play the pick five in a 50 cent increment but it had to be played for $2. So now my $80 play for 50 cents becomes a $320 play for $2. Not something I was looking to bet at Turf Paradise. I had a feeling that they wouldn’t take a 50 cent increment but to not even take it for a $1 was just ridiculous.

I didn’t leave any money in my Nassau Otb account and wasn’t going to leave the track to do so. Quite frankly why should I? If Turf Paradise accepts the bet for 50 cents then every simulcast outlet should do the same. I wrote an email to one of the higher ups and NYRA, someone I have been dealing with over the last year. When I wrote my first email ove a year ago about the problem with the TV signal in the house I was surprised to see I received a response back within 20 minutes. The problem was over the years I had enough of trying to get things done at NYRA but I knew this gentleman and his reputation as a customer friendly executive so I gave it a chance. He answered me quickly because he didn’t want me to think he was ignoring me and he gave me an answer that I could accept.

When I had more questions concerning certain things at the NYRA he was always very accomadating. Of course when this problem came up I sent him another email and he told me they would look into it and hopefully it should be up and running for 50 cent wagers fairly soon. I haven’t been to Aqueduct since it opened on Friday so I guess I will see when I get there if they will change it. Another part of that email concerned the 50 cent bets that Churchill Downs accepts. The NYRA took them during Breeders’ Cup but nothing was in place to continue you that on regular days as of right now. Hopefully they will be able to get that policy changed because it is a big help to horse players. Not only can you get more combinations for less money but it the ridiculous reporting and withholding laws that are in place this can help you in that respect also.

With the slots ready to come into Aqueduct by the beginning of the Summer there is much excitement around these parts regarding the future of New York racing. However, simple things like having the correct betting increments for all the tracks that simulcast regardless of the track is very important. I don’t want to keep money in multiple betting accounts just so I can place a bet at the right increment. It isn’t right and it will certainly take away from handle at that betting venue. This past summer Monmouth had a 50 cent pick five as they had the last few years. The pools were much larger this year with the less racing days and bigger fields and the NYRA would not accept the bet for 50 cents. I sent an email a few months back and the following week the 50 cent increment was in play at NYRA. I want to think my email had something to do with it. I have been betting the great game of horse racing for almost 30 years, I was introduced to the game at a young age and loved to look at the racing form. I have a good feel for what the gambler wants even though he might not know it. If those that bet at NYRA exclusively might not even know what these betting increments are. Hopefully, this problem can be taken care of and I believe it will especially with my pipeline to NYRA quick responses to my inquiries.

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The Great Zenyatta

Heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday I had two thoughts, Zenyatta will not hit the board and her streak of 19 wins in a row will finally come to an end. Well I was right on one of those thoughts, she didn’t win and her streak did come to an end, but I was wrong because she did more than hit the board.

I was wrong about her ability and I am not afraid to say it. I knew she wasn’t beating much in all of her wins, they for the majority were coming over synthetic surfaces and she wasn’t winning by much. She would have to travel to Churchill Downs, run over a dirt surface she had never run over and defeat a field of 12 very solid racehorses and do it by coming from last.

She is the most popular racehorse I have seen in a very long time, maybe ever, at least in my lifetime. She brought people to the track, they loved to see her race and she was always very exciting, getting up in the last few strides to stay undefeated. However, that win streak came to an end on Saturday, November 6th, 2010 at Churchill Downs. However, what most people that aren’t horse racing diehards like myself is that she ran her best race in defeat.

After getting away last as she always does, she took a while to get into a rhythm and was forced to make up more ground just to get up to the field. She had to steady just a bit heading into the lane and closed strongly down the center of the track to just by a head to BLAME, the leading older horse in the country. She was more than three lengths clear of the show horse and proved that she was one of the greatest female racehorses, but the best of all time would be very hard for me to say. She proved that she can bring her run over any surface and that early fractions don’t matter that much. She proved to me that she is a great racehorse who may be the best in the country but again she might fall just short of Horse of the Year. That title should go to BLAME. After all he ran his record to 4 for 5, with one second place finish, three Grade I’s and a head to head defeat over ZENYATTA, no pun intended.

This doesn’t guarantee victory because of ZENYATTA’S popularity and the snub many felt she got last year when she finished second behind RACHEL ALEXANDRA. In the Sunday edition (10/31/10) of the Daily Racing Form, Steven Crist wrote an article about how ZENYATTA must earn horse of the year title on the track. He put a portion of an article by New York Times writer Joe Drape who basically said, Whether she wins or loses ZENYATTA should be Horse of the Year. The thought was she should have won it last year. The problem is this, the award is Horse of the Year not “Career” of the year. She didn’t have a better year that RACHEL ALEXANDRA in 2009, part of that was because racing’s biggest day was run over a synthetic surface in 2009 and the two horses behind her were turf horses. Secondly, she didn’t have a better year than BLAME this year and she once again should finish second in the voting.

However, that is not guaranteed especially with certain writers making those statements before the race is run. Whether she wins it or not, she proved to me and many other racing experts that she did indeed belong and she came up a head short of going down as perhaps the best female racehorse of all-time.

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Remembering the old days

On Saturday October 2nd, 2010 there were many racetracks hosting their versions of Breeders’ Cup Preview day. Belmont who started this trend some years back had five Grade I races on their program highlighted by the Grade I, $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup. This was a race that was rich in tradition. Kelso won this race five times in a row from 1960-1964, when racing was racing. Horse racing was one of the most popular sports and treated as such by the media, these stars made the game. Forego, Affirmed and John Henry all won this race before the advent of the Breeders’ Cup as part of Belmont’s Fall Championship Series.

Although that feeling of going to the track and getting excited about that days races from a “star” standpoint have all but gone away, Saturday sort of had that feel. The Jockey Club Gold Cup was an interesting race in that the leading older horse in the country BLAME would be racing against one of the top three year olds, FLY DOWN and RAIL TRIP, a synthetic specialist who has a ton of ability and would be trying the conventional dirt for the first time. Saturday was also the day that ZENYATTA would go for her 19th striaght victory and try to keep her record undefeated.

I went out to the track at Belmont on Saturday, nothing I wouldn’t have normally done on any other Saturday because I am still one of those diehards that loves to go to the track instead of betting from your living room. The listed attendance was 9,671 but those numbers might have been helped by the free baseball hat giveaway. However, seeing that many fans at Belmont save for Belmont Stakes Day was a bit refreshing and brought back some of the old days in the early 1980′s when the crowds were large and not affected as much by OTB or in home betting because it didn’t exist.

I watched HAYNESFIELD take the early initiative and score in wire to wire fashion, never looking back easily defeating BLAME as FLY DOWN finished a clear third. RAIL TRIP was a major disappointment showing no run whatsoever and tiring to finish fifth. But I didnt get that feel like I was watching a race back in the old days, remember the old days for me were the early 1980′s. Back then horses would win and they were cheered and people would try to get to the rail to see them come back, it was like watching Mickey Mantle or Joe Namath walk out of the tunnel before a game. We don’t have stars like we used too especially here on the east coast.

However, on the west coast, they do have a star and her name is ZENYATTA, undefeated in 19 starts after a thrilling finish to get up at the wire in the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Hollywood Park on Saturday October 2nd. She looked beaten again late in the race but her huge stride got her home as she got up to beat SWITCH by a half length as the crowd cheered. The listed attendance was 25,837 which goes to show you what star power can do. They were there to cheer on their superstar and when she won all was right with the world, even if for just a little bit. Kind of how I felt when I was younger and was introduced to this game. What could be wrong if so and so won that weekend? I would get to see so and so run the next weekend and I couldn’t wait because of the beauty of this game. The superstars attracted me to the Sport of Kings and nowadays they still do, even for just one or two days a year.

I can’t wait for the Breeders’ Cup in about a month when all the stars converge and for those two days remembering how it was in the “old days” when this game was the greatest. Maybe one day even if it takes a very long time we can get back to those days, even for just a brief moment.

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The game still hurts the bettor

Most people that walk into a racetrack for the first time don’t really know the ins and outs of betting, what a pick three, pick four, exacta, trifecta, etc are. They certainly don’t know what IRS W2-G reporting policy is or what the IRS W2-G withholding policy is.

Some of those that have been going to the racetrack for years don’t even understand those policies. If you buy the post parade program (which I don’t, I use the daily racing form) you can turn to the beginning of the magazine and those policies are explained in two brief paragraphs.

IRS W2-G REPORTING POLICY- Any winning wager or group of identical wagers (same track, race pool and winning numbers) whose individual odds are 300-1 or greater and whose winning dollar value either individually or when added together is between $600 and $5,000 (minus the amount of the indiviudal winning wager (s)) is subject to IRS reporting requirements to be completed on form W2-G.

IRS W2-G WITHHOLDING POLICY- Any winning wager or group of identical wagers whose individual odds are 300-1 or greater and whose winning dollar value either individually or added together exceeds $5,000 (minus the amount of the individual winning wager(s)) is subject to an IRS withholding tax at the rate of 25 percent.

Now basically what this means is that on the reporting policy if you hit a bet lets say that pays $605 for $2 you have to sign and that money is reported to the IRS as income. The only problem is you could have invested $500 into that wager but all that matters is that it was more that $600, less the amount of the wager, which is another misleading statement, it only counts the winning wager, $2, not the entire investment. With the withholdings it gets worse. They can add together identical wagers, which are not really identical wagers in that they are not the same bet. If you hit a bet for lets say $5 and the it pays out $1,100 for $1. You collect $5,500 even though you may have hit it on $5 different wagers but if each one had the wining ticket it is considered identical. Over $1,375 is withheld from your payout at the window again regardless of investment and you have to wait a year to MAYBE get it back.

Problem with this whole secenario is that these levels for reporting and withholding don’t take into account the new wagers that have evolved over the years. The reporting should be at $5,000 and the withholdings some where around $20,000. The amount of money that is taken out of circulation every year not to mention the handle lost for the racetrack and the state is huge. How come after all these years these policies haven’t changed. Not to mention the amount of paperwork on taxes on a yearly basis including all the winnings that go over $600 even when added together is another problem.

When everyone wants to know why the game is losing customers, not cultivating new ones, this is a big reason why. It is hard enough as we all know to win at this game with all the added factors but now if you happen to hit a few bets and it goes over $5,000, the IRS will hold 25% of the money. If you get it back in a year great but I am sure it will not be going back into the windows. The state loses, the bettor loses and the racetrack loses. Change these policies and give the bettor a chance to embrace this once great game.

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NYRA Stewards

On many occasions the decisions the stewards in New York make on a daily basis have boggled my mind. I have screamed and yelled in private and have wrote about them in the lead of our horses to watch newsletter, the American Turf Club. But this past week at Saratoga two decisions on consectitive days have to be addressed but I am sure it never will. Before Saratoga started it was announced that the Stewards would explain their decisions they have made and put this up on NYRA’s website.

I was very happy to hear this because I have been asking for years to have the stewards explain their decisions and be held accountable for the change or non-change in the order of finish and give the bettors, who by the way keep this game going, a reason for why they did or did not take a horse down. But after the seeing some of the explainations it is not what I was looking for. Here is a following decision for race 9 at Saratoga on July 29th, “RACE 9 – Inquiry and objection race 9 inside the 16th pole. Number 3 against 9 for alleged interference. After viewing the films the result will be official as is.” Well that’s great everyone knows the results stand as is, we can see it on the board, how about the reasoning behind it, why did you leave it up, give me some insight to the thought process.

Well in my opinion it gets worse, on September 3rd there was an inquiry and disqualification in race 5 and on the following day the result stood in race 6. I had an interest on September 3rd and no interest on September 4th. I know everyone is saying well of course you were taken down thats why you think it is a bad call. Well maybe, but I don’t believe that to be true. On September 3rd, race 5, PALOOZA, who was battling for the lead throughout, took over from her rival inside, was over a length clear began to drift out towards the middle of the track and OVERSEAS MARKET altered course and got up for second. The inquiry went up as well as an objection and after a lengthy look at it the stewards took down PALOOZA. Here was their reasoning behind it, please look rule number they posted with this explanation. “RACE 5: Inquiry and jockeys objection #7 Palooza jockey J. Castellano drifts out at the 1/16 pole causing #1 Overseas Market jockey R. Dominguez to alter course. # 7 disqualified and placed 2nd.”

4035.2. Foul riding penalized.
(a) When clear, a horse may be taken to any part of the course provided that crossing or weaving in front of contenders may constitute interference or intimidation for which the offender may be disciplined.
(b) A horse crossing another may be disqualified, if in the judgment of the stewards, it interferes with, impedes or intimidates another horse, or the foul altered the finish of the race, regardless of whether the foul was accidental, willful, or the result of careless riding. The stewards may also take into consideration mitigating factors, such as whether the impeded horse was partly at fault or the crossing was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey

On the very next day in race number 6, a race I had no interest in from a betting standpoint the leader ASTROLOGY started to go by his rival to his inside. As he was about a length clear, he drifted in and forced TO HONOR AND STEVE to take up and he finished second. Now in both instances, the winner of the race was going to win and the second place finisher was going to run second. There was no intent in either instance and remember we are dealing with two year olds here. I could not believe, however, that ASTROLOGY was not taken down considering what happened the day before. I waited for the explanation from the stewards and here it is, again take note of the rule they stated. “RACE 6: Inquiry in to stretch run involving # 4 Astrology [ A Garcia] And # 1 To Honor and Serve [J Velazquez] # 4 drifts in while passing # 1 causing # 1 to steady
After viewing the films the race is official as is.”

4035.2. Foul riding penalized.
(a) When clear, a horse may be taken to any part of the course provided that crossing or weaving in front of contenders may constitute interference or intimidation for which the offender may be disciplined.
(b) A horse crossing another may be disqualified, if in the judgment of the stewards, it interferes with, impedes or intimidates another horse, or the foul altered the finish of the race, regardless of whether the foul was accidental, willful, or the result of careless riding. The stewards may also take into consideration mitigating factors, such as whether the impeded horse was partly at fault or the crossing was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey.

It is the same rule, a rule that basically states it could be taken down if it alters the result of the race in their opinion. I thought the whole idea was to not hurt the public if the results of the race were not altered. Now I understand that this can’t be the outcome every time there is an infraction because some are worse then others. But when almost the identical thing happens two days in a row and one day there is a D’Q and the next day there isn’t something is not right. I know many people from the racetrack, most of them play on a daily basis and play big money. I had three calls after that race on September 4th and they all wanted to know how could one horse come down the day before and the very next day the horse stays up, I am thinking the same thing.

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“Expanded” Saratoga over for now

For the many years of my life that I have gone to Saratoga, the drive home knowing that I will not be going back for a year it made me very sad, win, lose or draw. It is a different place, something you just can’t get downstate. This year unfortunately I was only able to make it there for one day, opening day of the meeting. It was a pretty nice day driving up to Saratoga. I stopped around 10:00 to get something to eat, when I came out, it was raining and didnt stop until late that night. Suffice to say it was very pleasant, I was soaked but again it was in Saratoga.

When I was younger and the family vacation came every August it was a trip to Saratoga. I would wait all year for this. Back then it was the August place to be, now it’s the July, August and September place to be. They only had 24 racing days back then which made getting up there a priority but over the years they kept adding days and this year they added four more making it 40 racing days. Next year it looks like more of the same.

Now on paper this looks like a good move but in this instance, the more isn’t the merrier. Especially in this economy the people that are going to Saratoga are the same people for the most part that will be going next year. The four extra days doesnt necessarily mean that there will be new people going to the track. Yes, there will be more people at Saratoga on those extra days at the beginning of meeting then what they would get at Belmont. But overall this change may not be a good thing.

We need to get back to less days especially now that it looks like they VLT’s might be in by next year and NYRA’s financial situation should improve. I mean we saw races this year with horses in years past that wouldnt even be let on the grounds at NYRA let alone respresenting a good portion of their races. I know this will not happen but I hope in the future the powers that be understand that Saratoga is the greatest place on earth, but as the saying goes, “too much of a good thing.”

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Rachel Alexandra

To all that were lucky enough to witness her Horse of the Year run in 2009 consider yourself lucky. For those who were able to see her in person during that run consider yourself privileged. Well I guess i am both lucky and privileged. I saw her on television and in person twice, once at Belmont and once at the famed Saratoga Race Course. She electrified the crowd each time and her greatness was on display for the whole year.

It is something you dont get to see each year, a superstar racehorse that actually runs more than once every three months. Her connections, owner Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen had the Horse of the Year in 2007-2008 when CURLIN was named to that honor for the second year running. Jess Jackson is about the good of the horse and the good for the game of horse racing. Many owners would have sent CURLIN to the breeding shed after his three year old year, however Jackson knew he had a superstar and that the fans deserved to see him run. I had the privilege of seeing him run three times in 2008 and once in 2007.

As I sit here on a sunny Monday Morning, the day after the great RACHEL ALEXANDRA lost for the third time in five tries I am sad. Not because Rachel lost yesterday to a markedly inferior horse but because she is not what she once was. Her three year old season was a dream season and she was clearly the “Horse” of the year. She did things that you just don’t see horses do anymore. To win eight races at seven different racetracks, against the males, then against the older males, horses just don’t do that anymore. Not to take anything away from the great ZENYATTA but she has only left the state of California twice in her career and both times to run at Oaklawn Park.

There was talk that Rachel just wasn’t the same horse this year when she lost her first race out of the box by 3/4′s of length at the Fair Grounds. She wasn’t rushed into a race against ZENYATTA but then promptly lost her next start by a head at Churchill Downs. She followed that up with two huge wins against inferior competition and this was supposed to be her return to greatness in the Personal Ensign on August 29th at Saratoga. She was trying 1 and 1/4 miles for the first time and was facing a good horse in LIFE AT TEN but she wasn’t supposed to lose.

She came out of the gate running and was pressed early on by LIFE AT TEN through solid fractions but nothing that spectacular. They went to the 3/4 mark in 1:12 flat but then after that with a 3 and 1/2 length lead into the lane she couldn’t go on with it instead she gave it up late to PERSISTENTLY, a horse who finally won her NW2X condition after getting a perfect trip that day. The final time of the Personal Ensign was 2:04:2. That means the last half mile was run in 52:2 and the final quarter mile in just a shade under 27 seconds. Certainly not the mark of a Horse of the Year runner; she is clearly just not the same horse from 2009. I dont think we will ever see her back to that form again but at least we will have the memories.

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“Expert Selections”

Every year as the Saratoga season rolls around the local daily papers always have their “experts” give out their picks for the entire meeting at Saratoga on a daily basis, whether they are win, place, show or other wagers, everyday you can open to that section and get their advice.

They usually start with a mythical bankroll somewhere around $1000-$1500. The operative word here is “Mythical”. Each day they give out their selections and the majority of the time they are win and place bets on horses that are barely paying 2-1. Place bets! are they protecting that mythical $10  they are betting or are these experts betting the way they bet in real life?

Some even look to bet 2-5 shots to win and then tell you that is clearly the way to make money at the track. Now I am not saying I am a winning machine, but I know this, that when I bet the races I bet to win. You wont see me protecting a $20 bet and hoping to get back $16 if i run second. I am going to bet to win and give myself the best value. The pick 4′s in my humble opinion clearly give you that value. You can turn $60 into $5,000 easily. To not even make an attempt at that instead just trying to stay $50 in front of the next guy so you can have bragging rights is not really the way these “experts” should be protraying themselves to the public.

 Now do I like some of their good natured ribbing of each other, sure, it makes for good copy every once in a while but to not at least take a chance on the best bet at the track (pick 4′s) or trying to maximize your money and instead playing not to lose as much as the other guy when your’re betting with mythical money it seems very difficult to call yourself an expert.

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